What to do?

What can we do? Alphafold is obviously capable of (occasionally) performing miracles. So, can we separate the diamonds from the mud?

Alphafold B-factor Alphafold models have a reliability index coded in the B-factors in the PDB file. One obvious thing to do is to see if this B-factor can be used as some kind of a filter.

I divided the Alphafold B-factors in 10 bins: 0.-10.0, 10.0-20.0, etc. And I truncated the LR score at 9, so each LR score >  9 is set to 9. All residues have an Alphafold score and a LR score, and with both mapped on ten bins, all residues have their own spot in a 10-by-10 matrix. This matrix can be printed as AF-LR and LR-AF. Both have been done below:

         10.0   20.0   30.0   40.0   50.0   60.0   70.0   80.0   90.0  100.0
L= 0        0     32  30448 7777331044773 494932 295987 243389 4032661211703
L= 1        3     22  15751 177013 165980  93160  74784  89870 183211 490427
L= 2        3     18  12701 136129 122910  69147  57492  72219 153796 421834
L= 3        2     31  14224 144846 127660  72659  62026  79085 171173 464479
L= 4        2     28  15143 145262 123334  72524  61621  79498 173730 473540
L= 5        5     62  33028 352619 330855 194127 157890 189682 3901091049754
L= 6        9     17   9483  93451  76827  46174  40665  53604 120698 340462
L= 7        4     16   7519  72212  59570  36238  31754  41782  92113 265934
L= 8        2      6   5216  51284  42882  25747  21771  29092  64094 191253
L=9+        5     16   8180  86008  74667  45116  38969  50418 111722 348627
         10.0   20.0   30.0   40.0   50.0   60.0   70.0   80.0   90.0  100.0
A= 10.      0      3      3      2      2      5      9      4      2      5
A= 20.     32     22     18     31     28     62     17     16      6     16
A= 30.  30448  15751  12701  14224  15143  33028   9483   7519   5216   8180
A= 40. 777733 177013 136129 144846 145262 352619  93451  72212  51284  86008
A= 50.1044773 165980 122910 127660 123334 330855  76827  59570  42882  74667
A= 60. 494932  93160  69147  72659  72524 194127  46174  36238  25747  45116
A= 70. 295987  74784  57492  62026  61621 157890  40665  31754  21771  38969
A= 80. 243389  89870  72219  79085  79498 189682  53604  41782  29092  50418
A= 90. 403266 183211 153796 171173 173730 390109 120698  92113  64094 111722
A=100.1211703 490427 421834 464479 4735401049754 340462 265934 191253 348627

From whic I conclude that there is no sensible Alphafold B-factor cutoff to be found. So, we will have to resort to some good-old-fashioned brute-force.

I am implementing this now... Come back in a few days